How Volodymyr Zelenskyy exposed Trump's House of Cards

Here's another perspective on this debacle - while many think Volodymyr Zelenskyy lost his cool in this discussion and walked away from an important ceasefire negotiation, I actually think every single thing he did was highly tactical and he managed it all in a calm and even tone, something we can all agree Trump / Vance could not do.

When JD Vance started his rant on how Donald Trump is doing with action what Joe Biden never even accomplished with words, while he did it for the press, Zelenskyy saw a potentially unforgivable mistake from Trump / Vance - they had clearly forgotten history.

And history, as he reveals, shows that the violence between Ukraine didn't start in 2022 (on Biden's watch), when Russia invaded Ukraine. It started in 2014 (on Barack Obama's watch), when Russia occupied and annexed Crimea from Ukraine. It continued for 8 years (through Trump's entire presidency and half of Biden's term). And then it burst onto the international stage in a big way in 2022. But it didn't start there.

So when Vance patronizingly tries to say Trump is taking action that Biden did not, Zelenskyy is forcing him to either admit that he doesn't know the history (when Trump was notably absent in supporting Ukraine) and/or admit that his whole rant is simply playing to the press (and Vance somehow does both).

Of course, Trump & Vance petulantly try to remind Zelenskyy that "he doesn't have the cards" and that they're offering him a real ceasefire instead of continuing to lose men to this war. But here Zelenskyy successfully beats them down again by reminding them what it means to declare a ceasefire with Putin (answer - it means nothing).

A short history of treaties Putin has broken:

1. Black Sea Fleet Treaty 1997 - Russia was supposed to evacuate all military units from all bases in Crimea starting in 2017 (did the opposite)

2. Minsk Protocol ceasefire 2014 - Signed to stop the war in Donbas (Russia sent military in to take over Ukraine-controlled area)

3. Minsk II 2015 - Ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, mediated by Germany (Russia ultimately refused to implement any part of ceasefire)

4. Steinmeier Formula 2019 (what Zelenskyy mentions to Vance) - Russia and Ukraine agree to full and comprehensive ceasefire including Ukrainian withdrawal from major battlezones, Russia prisoner exchange and withdrawal of Russian troops (Russia ultimately refuses to withdraw troops)

So when Zelenskyy calmly asks, why should he trust that this ceasefire is any different, he's trying to gauge:

(A) if they even know the history of broken promises and

(B) if they can say anything more compelling than yet another card game analogy (spoiler alert - they couldn't).

And since they couldn't Zelenskyy confirmed that this is nothing but a publicity stunt and he's working with adversaries, not allies. No wonder he wants to walk away from the deal - it's just another empty promise.

What Zelenskyy ultimately was able to do was show that while Ukraine wants a "just peace", Trump / Vance "just want 'peace'" (h/t NPR). Trump / Vance will pursue the publicity version of peace at all costs including:

• Removing Ukraine from the negotiating table despite not having any concept of history of relationship and who aggressors have always been

• Placing high value in very public "ceasefire" despite repeated treaty breaking by Russia

• Commanding Ukraine to both be thankful for all the help the US has given without requirement (it has) AND exploiting Ukraine to take advantage of mineral resources

In the end, this discussion exposed how “holding all the cards” doesn’t mean you know how to play the game that matters.